Wed, Dec 25, 2024

The Indian Rupee's Depreciation Against the US Dollar: Causes, Context, and Consequences

Equity
Team S

Team S

Posted on Wed, Dec 25, 2024

4 min read

Share the article with your network

x
Facebook
linkedin

The Indian rupee has been on a downward trajectory against the US dollar, recently hitting a record low of approximately INR 85/USD. This depreciation reflects a confluence of domestic economic challenges and global financial dynamics. Understanding the reasons behind this trend and its broader implications requires an exploration of several interconnected factors.


Key Factors Behind the Rupee's Depreciation

1. Trade Imbalance

India has long grappled with a persistent trade deficit, where imports exceed exports. This imbalance increases the demand for US dollars to pay for imports, placing downward pressure on the rupee. Critical imports such as oil and electronics amplify this deficit, as these sectors are heavily reliant on international markets.


2. Capital Outflows

In 2024, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) withdrew over ₹43,000 crore from Indian markets. Such significant outflows reduce demand for the rupee while simultaneously increasing demand for the dollar. This trend underscores the sensitivity of emerging markets like India to global investor sentiment.


3. Stronger US Dollar

The US dollar's global strength has compounded the rupee's depreciation. A robust US economy, coupled with a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, has driven up demand for dollar-denominated assets, making the rupee comparatively weaker.


4. Inflation Differential

India's inflation rate remains higher than that of the US. This inflation differential erodes the purchasing power of the rupee and makes Indian goods less competitive in global markets, contributing to further depreciation.


5. Global Economic Uncertainty

Ongoing geopolitical tensions—such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-China rivalry—have created an uncertain global economic landscape. In such volatile conditions, investors gravitate toward safe-haven currencies like the US dollar, increasing its demand at the expense of emerging market currencies like the rupee.


6. Interest Rate Differentials

Rising US interest rates attract foreign capital flows into US assets, creating an increased demand for dollars. In contrast, India’s relatively lower interest rates diminish its attractiveness for foreign investments, exacerbating rupee depreciation.


7. Current Account Deficit

India's current account deficit, which reflects the country's higher expenditure on foreign trade than its earnings, has widened in recent years. This imbalance results in a net outflow of domestic currency, weakening the rupee further.


8. Structural Economic Challenges

India's reliance on imports for critical sectors, limited export diversification, and high external debt collectively heighten the rupee's sensitivity to global economic changes. Initiatives like ‘Make in India’ aim to address these issues, but their long-term impact is still unfolding.


The Paradox: Economic Growth Amid Rupee Weakness

Despite the rupee's depreciation, India’s economy remains one of the fastest-growing globally, with GDP projected to expand by 7% in FY 2023-24. This paradox highlights the nuanced interplay between economic growth and currency stability.


Drivers of Economic Growth

  1. Strong Domestic Consumption: Contributing nearly 70% to GDP.
  2. Robust Services Sector: Accounting for over 53% of economic output.
  3. Rising Private Investment: Particularly in real estate and manufacturing.
  4. Government Infrastructure Spending: Supporting long-term economic resilience.


Challenges to Growth

  1. Widening Trade and Current Account Deficits: These imbalances divert domestic currency outflows.
  2. Capital Flight: FIIs withdrawing investments reduces liquidity in domestic markets.
  3. Inflation Differential: Weakens competitiveness of Indian exports.


Policy Responses and Their Impacts

1. RBI Interventions

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has actively intervened in currency markets, selling dollars to stabilize the rupee. While this offers short-term relief, it also reduces domestic liquidity, which could impact overall economic growth.

2. Policy Trade-offs

Balancing inflation control, growth support, and currency stability poses significant challenges for policymakers. Efforts to curb inflation often involve raising interest rates, which can deter investments and slow growth.

3. Structural Reforms

Addressing India’s reliance on imports and diversifying exports are critical to ensuring long-term currency stability. Policies like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are steps in this direction but require sustained execution and investment.

Implications of Rupee Depreciation

  1. Higher Import Costs: A weaker rupee raises the cost of essential imports, including crude oil, leading to inflationary pressures.
  2. Export Competitiveness: Depreciation can boost exports by making Indian goods cheaper globally, but subdued global demand may limit this benefit.
  3. Foreign Investments: A weaker rupee lowers entry costs for foreign investors, but currency risks might deter long-term commitments.
  4. Consumer Impact: Rising prices for imported goods could erode purchasing power, affecting domestic consumption.


Outlook and Way Forward

The rupee’s depreciation is a symptom of broader economic dynamics. While India’s growth trajectory remains robust, addressing key vulnerabilities is essential to aligning currency stability with economic expansion. Structural reforms, prudent fiscal management, and a strategic approach to global economic headwinds will play pivotal roles.


Upcoming Challenges

  1. Elections and Policy Shifts: The 2024 elections may bring new economic policies that could influence investor sentiment and currency stability.
  2. Global Economic Conditions: The interplay between global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and trade dynamics will remain crucial.


India’s journey to balance economic growth with currency stability underscores the complexities of navigating an interconnected global economy. With the right strategies, the country can leverage its growth potential while mitigating the challenges posed by a depreciating rupee.

---

Join SEINET - the exclusive network for tech and science product and industry leaders. SignUp Free www.startupeuropeindia.net


You may also like

Sarah   J

Sarah J

Thu, Aug 21, 2025

Ola Electric's Gigafactory: Powering India's EV Future with In-House Innovation

Ola Electric is spearheading India's electric vehicle (EV) revolution with its state-of-the-art Gigafactory located in the Krishnagiri district of Tamil Nadu, on the outskirts of Bangalore. This expansive 115-acre facility is dedicated to the manufacturing of lithium-ion cells and is touted as India's first Gigafactory.India's First Gigafactory: A Hub of Complexity and Cleanliness The Ola Gigafactory is an extremely complex manufacturing facility, requiring exceptionally clean rooms where even moisture, sweat, hair, or dirt cannot enter the atmosphere. This level of precision is comparable to semiconductor manufacturing processes, making it one of the most intricate in the world.The Heart of EVs: The 4680 Lithium-Ion Cell At the core of Ola Electric's ambition is the 4680 lithium-ion cell, described as "the heart of EVs". Beyond electric vehicles, this small cell is envisioned as the "energy platform of the future," capable of powering diverse applications such as drones, humanoids, home energy storage devices (like inverters replacing lead-acid batteries), and even grid storage alongside solar plants.Impact on Ola Electric's Products and Margins The 4680 cells are set to power Ola scooters this quarter (Q2: July-September), with the first products delivered to customers during Navratri. Manufacturing these cells in-house will significantly improve Ola Electric's margins over the next 12 months, as they move away from importing this crucial component. All upcoming Ola products, including Gen 3 scooters, motorbikes, and future offerings, will utilise the 4680 cells. In-house cell production offers several strategic advantages:Technology Control: Ola gains control over the technology, which defines product performance, including charging speeds, range, and thermal performance.Supply Chain Resilience: It reduces dependence on external suppliers or geopolitical factors that might throttle supplies.Faster Development & Customisation: The ability to build the next generation of cell technology faster and customise cells for different products, such as motorcycles or performance bikes, is enhanced.All cells produced are BIS certified.A Glimpse into the Manufacturing Process The Gigafactory process is highly automated and precise:All-Women Workforce: A notable highlight is that the Gigafactory is an all-women facility, currently employing around 500 women and scaling up to 1,000. These women operate complex machines, engaging in high-skill level jobs rather than manual labour. Many are engineering graduates.Cathode Production: The process begins with cathode making, where raw materials are processed and wound into electrode rolls. These raw materials are sourced from multiple countries, including China, Japan, Korea, and Australia (a major producer of lithium and manganese).Slitting: Large electrode rolls are then precisely slit into smaller "daughter rolls" with micron-level accuracy.Assembly and Jelly Roll Creation: In the assembly process, the cathode, anode, and a separator are combined into a "jelly roll".Multi-Stage Production: Making a cell involves almost 20 more processes after the jelly roll stage. This includes flattening sides, intricate welding to attach the lid, and taping sides to ensure vacuum and air-proofing.Electrolyte Filling and Charging: The cells are initially open for electrolyte filling, after which they are sealed with a plug and undergo a 10-day charge/discharge "hibernation" cycle.Quality Assurance with AI: Every single cell undergoes an X-ray inspection, with AI imaging used to detect any deviations in critical parameters like the gap between cathode and anode layers. This ensures micron-level accuracy and is essential for the factory's operation.Production Capacity: The factory boasts a throughput of 1 to 2 lakh cells per day. Approximately 40 of these cells go into one scooter battery pack.Investment: The 5 GWh capacity of the Gigafactory will require an investment of approximately $400 million, much of which has already been invested through equity and pre-IPO debt.Moving Towards Rare Earth-Free Motors Ola Electric is also working on a rare earth-free motor, specifically a ferrite magnet motor. This initiative comes as China holds a near monopoly on rare earths, which are essential for current motor technologies. Ola began this journey two years ago and is ready for production next quarter, aiming to de-risk its supply chain from rare earth dependency. The long-term direction for motor technology is to reduce or eliminate magnets by using copper wire with electricity to create electromagnets. In the short term, Ola has already diversified its magnet sources across multiple countries and produces motors in-house, mitigating immediate production impacts.Market Dynamics and Future Outlook The EV market in India has seen an aggressive ramp-up, with scooter adoption growing from almost zero to about 20% in just four years. While currently in a phase of consolidation, Ola anticipates another steep ramp-up driven by technology progression, cost reduction, and improved range and charging speeds.Ola Electric entered the market later than some rivals but was the first to scale, building significant vertical integration, factory scale, and consumer mind share. Ola has sold 1.2 million two-wheelers to date, significantly outpacing its closest competitor. The company has shifted its strategy towards profitable growth, focusing on deep vertical integration, technology development, and a "DNA of technology" to build good products and ensure profitability. Ola aims to achieve a 25-30% market share in two-wheeler EVs with high margins.Bhavish Aggarwal, founder of Ola Electric, states that their vision for the cell Gigafactory extends beyond their own products; it is intended to be an energy platform for India, with cells potentially supplied to other startups and companies for drones, robotics, energy storage, and other automotive products.Aggarwal draws inspiration from global EV leaders like Tesla and BYD for their vertical integration, high margins, and product differentiation, as well as cell companies like CATL and LG for their world-class processes and innovation. He believes it's "never too late" for India to start and scale up in these frontier technologies, aiming to "leapfrog" existing advancements.----Startup Europe India Network (SEINET) is an exclusive, invite-only platform connecting science and technology scale-ups, industry leaders, and investors from Europe and India to accelerate cross-border growth through sales, partnerships, and M&A. www.startupeuropeindia.net
Thu, Aug 21, 2025
Ola Electric's Gigafactory: Powering India's EV Future with In-House Innovation
Sarah   J

Sarah J

Wed, Aug 20, 2025

Apple to Manufacture All Four iPhone 17 Models in India, making India second largest hub after China

Apple is expanding its iPhone manufacturing in India, with all four models of the upcoming iPhone 17 series being assembled there ahead of the device’s anticipated September launch. This marks the first time the full lineup, including the Pro models, will be produced in India from day one.The production now spans five factories, including new facilities by Tata Group in Hosur, Tamil Nadu, and Foxconn’s plant near Bengaluru. India currently accounts for about 20 percent of global iPhone production. Tata is expected to handle up to half of India’s iPhone output within the next two years, with the country projected to reach 25 to 30 percent of global iPhone production by year-end.India’s iPhone exports surged 63 percent to $7.5 billion in the April-July 2025 period, compared with $4.6 billion during the same months in 2024. This four-month period accounts for nearly half of India’s total iPhone exports in the previous fiscal year, which were valued at $17 billion.The expansion is a response to trade tensions and tariff threats. While Apple’s iPhones remain exempt from tariffs related to President Trump’s earlier 50 percent duties on Indian imports tied to Russian oil purchases, the exemption is subject to change amid ongoing trade discussions.Apple faces repeated pressure from the U.S. government over overseas manufacturing, including direct calls from Trump urging CEO Tim Cook to halt operations in India and threats of 25 percent tariffs on products manufactured outside the U.S.In August 2025, Apple announced a $100 billion investment plan to boost manufacturing in the United States, bringing its total domestic investment pledge to $600 billion over four years through a newly created American Manufacturing Program. However, analysts note that shifting significant iPhone production to the U.S. would require years, with potential price increases for devices estimated as high as $3,500.The Indian manufacturing expansion strengthens Apple’s supply chain diversification and positions the company to serve its large and growing market locally while mitigating risks from geopolitical and trade uncertainties.These developments mark India as Apple’s second-largest manufacturing hub after China, reflecting the company’s strategic shift in global production priorities.----Startup Europe India Network (SEINET) is an exclusive, invite-only platform connecting science and technology scale-ups, industry leaders, and investors from Europe and India to accelerate cross-border growth through sales, partnerships, and M&A. www.startupeuropeindia.net
Wed, Aug 20, 2025
Apple to Manufacture All Four iPhone 17 Models in India, making India second largest hub after China
Sarah   J

Sarah J

Tue, Aug 19, 2025

Gautam Adani Calls for India’s “Second Freedom Struggle” Through Technological Self-Reliance

Gautam Adani, Chairman of the Adani Group, has issued a powerful call for India to embark on what he calls its “second freedom struggle,” this time focused on achieving technological self-reliance. Speaking at the platinum jubilee of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur, Adani framed future global competition as a battle fought not with traditional weapons but through control over algorithms, data, and intellectual property.Adani emphasized that the true power in today's world lies in data centers and intellectual property rather than conventional resources or territories. He warned that nations dominating technology and intellectual property will, in turn, control the future. Highlighting India’s heavy reliance on imports—with 90% of chips and 85% of oil sourced from abroad—he urged urgent action from the government, academia, and industry to build domestic strength in these critical sectors.To guide this transformation, Adani proposed four core principles that could steer India toward technological and economic ascendancy: treating ideas as weapons in competition, prioritizing “India first” in development, fortifying the country's technological and infrastructure base, and fostering closer cooperation between academia, government, and industry.In an era marked by rapid AI innovation, Adani cautioned that today's technological advantages could quickly evaporate, making technological sovereignty synonymous with national sovereignty. He stressed the need for India to prepare aggressively, ensuring engineers and innovators lead this race rather than follow.Backing his vision with tangible projects, Adani announced the construction of the world’s largest renewable energy park in Gujarat’s Khavda region, spanning 500 square kilometers and boasting a massive planned capacity of 30 gigawatts. His ambition is clear: India will lead global renewable energy production within five years and set the pace worldwide by 2030.Further fueling innovation, Adani launched the Adani-IIT Platinum Jubilee Change Makers Fellowship, aiming to back promising projects in renewable energy, logistics, and smart mobility—areas crucial for sustainable growth.Reflecting on his company’s national scale, Adani attributed part of the Adani Group's success to its alignment with government policies, positioning it as India’s largest infrastructure player. He sees the Khavda project and others as integral to building a strong, technologically sovereign India.By positioning technological independence as a vital national mission, Adani is raising the stakes for India’s future. His message underlines the crucial nexus of innovation, infrastructure, and policy, signaling that collaboration across sectors is key for India’s emergence as a global technology leader.--------Startup Europe India Network (SEINET) is an exclusive, invite-only platform connecting science and technology scale-ups, industry leaders, and investors from Europe and India to accelerate cross-border growth through sales, partnerships, and M&A. www.startupeuropeindia.net
Tue, Aug 19, 2025
Gautam Adani Calls for India’s “Second Freedom Struggle” Through Technological Self-Reliance